Chris Holmes Online

I was shocked, like many folks probably were, when I flipped on ESPN Saturday morning to find that defensive end Mario Williams had inked a deal with the Houston Texans the night before and was going to be the number one pick. I was shocked for two reasons.

One, Reggie Bush has been described by many as Gale Sayers reincarnated. I’ve likened him to Barry Sanders, not because I think he can run like Sanders, but because I think he’s special in the way Barry was special. He’s electric. When a player comes along like that, which is only slightly more often than the frequency of Haily’s Comet, you need to pick the guy if you have the chance. And Houston was in the best position in the world to do it holding that #1 pick, yet they blew it.

Two, I was floored that Mario Williams was the alternative, because up until that day I had not heard anyone describe him as a potential Hall of Famer. Yet Saturday morning that is exactly how he was being painted, with analysts comparing him to Reggie White, Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeny. No kidding, those are the names folks used. That’s pretty big company. Yet consider that the criticism of Williams (very well laid out by Mel Kiper Jr.) was that the kid was only successful against the most mediocre of college competition, and when he went up against good college tackles he got shut out. That’s not the mark of a future Hall of Famer folks.

I still think Mario Williams is going to be a disappointment. He’ll be O.K., but O.K. for the #1 pick doesn’t cut it in the NFL.

Thoughts On….

The Houston Texans Not Taking Reggie Bush

The New Orleans Saints should send the Houston Texans a gift package every Sunday of every season that Reggie Bush plays in a Saints uniform. A sort of “Thank You” for passing on the guy who will undoubtedly have a much better career than Williams, barring a Joe Theismann-type injury.

The Broncos Getting Jevon Walker

I think the Denver Broncos got the best player in the draft for the 2006/2007 season: Jevon Walker. Rookies players rarely make an impact their first year (exception being guys like Lofa Tatupu and Shawn Merriman). Walker is a veteran talent though, a marquee receiver with established credentials. He gives the Broncos production right now. In my heart I always kind of hoped Seattle would make a run at Walker, especially with the Green Bay /Mike Homegren connection, but after they snagged Burleson I knew it wouldn’t happen. Congrats to Denver.

The Tennessee Titans Selecting Vince Young

I think the Tennessee Titans made a mistake picking Vince Young instead of Matt Leinart. Ron Jaworski reinforced that thought twice during the draft, once on Saturday and again on Sunday, when he broke down tape of Vince Young on a very simple red-zone play.

You may have seen the clip I’m talking about: I-formation, wide receivers split left and right with the tight end lined up on the left side of the offensive line. The cornerback on the left side is playing off, taking away receiver’s fade route. The tight end is triple covered with linebackers and the safety. The right cornerback is playing press coverage against a receiver who is also running a fade route. The obvious read is to the right side against the press coverage, taking a short three-step drop and releasing the ball quickly. But Young doesn’t make that elemetary pre-snap read, and instead takes a five-step drop and looks for the tight end.

There were questions about Vince Young’s Wonderlic score before the draft and his ability to absorb a pro-style offense and make NFL-level reads. Jaworski’s breakdown of Young on that play maginified the problems this kid has with understanding the NFL game. Jaworski also broke down Young’s throwing motion and showed why it is so bad; he’s essentially a 6′5″ quarterback throwing at about a 5′11″ level. Tall linemen are going to bat down his passes.

Vince Young is a project in every sense of the word. He’s a house in need of major rennovations, and I’m not even sure Extreme Makeover can save him. When was the last time anyone in the NFL turned an ugly duckling into a beautiful swan? When I see Vince Young play I immediately think of Rick Mirer. You may remember him as the guy the Seahawks took in the 2nd overall pick in the 1993 draft. Played for Notre Dame, where he scrambled to stardom. The Seahawks later learned that the poor guy couldn’t read defenses, hence his propensity to run like a chicken with his head cut off.

I don’t see Vince Young being any different than Mirer.

The Arizona Cardinals Selecting Matt Leinart

I thought the Cardinals got a steal when Leinart fell to them at #10. Huge steal. Everyone talks about Leinart as if he’s reached his potential already and can’t possibly get any better. How can that be? I know that success at the college level as a quarterback doesn’t automatically translate to the NFL (Danny Wuerffel anyone?), and lack of arm strength is certainly red flag for any rookie QB. But the most accurate quarterback in the NFL last year, the guy who took his team to the first Super Bowl berth in franchise history, Matt Hasselbeck, has one of the weakest arms in the NFL (check out his long distance throws in the Quarterback Challenge the past two years). He’s not Wuerffel weak, of course, but neither is Leinart. Besides, arm strength isn’t everything. Anyone remember Ryan Leaf or Jeff George? Just because you’re born with a cannon strapped to your shoulder doesn’t mean you will automatically make a great quarterback at the NFL level.

I think one of the truisms of the NFL draft is that folks get far too caught up on the “potential” of a player. Look through the history of the draft and tell me when a player had a load of “potential” and then was coached up and “realized” that potential once he got into the NFL. A far more common story is that of the guy who was “productive” at the college level and took that productivity straight to the NFL. In other words, he did the same things at the pro level that he did in college.

Bottom line, if the guy didn’t do it in college then there’s a good reason to believe he never will do it at the pro level either. “Potential” is a coach-killer.

I think Leinart will be fine in Arizona. He’s surrounded by talent at the glamour positions. Now he just needs an offensive line.

Everyone Is Improved

The funny thing about watching the draft is that (a) the coaches are always happy with who they pick and (b) every team “improved” by drafting the guys they did. Well, according to the law of sports, which says that when one team wins another has to lose, the whole thing is moot then if “everyone” got better.

But someone has to lose on Sunday’s boys. If Arizona, San Fransisco and St. Louis all got better that’s one thing. But if the Seahawks also got better, if they also improved, then the distance between then is still the same. Seattle will still win the division.

The only way things change from year to year is if someone does not get better. Someone had to have a bad draft. Someone had to make a bad pick. Someone had to hire the wrong coach, or call the wrong play, or whatever.

The thing to remember is: someone did not get better yesterday. In fact, a whole bunch of teams didn’t get better yesterday.

They just don’t know it yet.

I like Seattle’s draft. I like it a lot. The second pick immediately reminded me that Tim Ruskell has his fingerprint on this team. They selected Darryl Tapp, defensive end, with the 63rd overall selection. A guy described as:

…lacks ideal height and has just decent top-end speed. In all reality, Tapp is a better football player than natural athlete. However, he is a quick, powerful, instinctive playmaker who also has the bulk and center of gravity to hold his ground in run support versus most offensive tackles. Few will outwork Tapp during games, at practice or in the film room.

When I read that I immediately thought of Lofa Tatupu. He registered the exact same criticism and praise last year. Too small, too short, lacks ideal weight and size, etc. But oh, the intangibles. Hard worker, great “football” player instead of “athelete.” Productive. Then there’s this:

He also proved his worth at the Senior Bowl when he notched a sack with a double-move that kept Virginia OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets’ first-round pick, fourth overall) off balance.

This is what you like to see from your draft pick: he took the #4 overall pick to school during the Senior Bowl (Kiper said on-air that he actually had two sacks against Ferguson in that game). A guy like Mario Williams is getting knocked by Mel Kiper Jr. for becoming invisible against good competition, but Darryl Tapp is actually shining against the best the NCAA has to offer. I love hearing that.

Their first-round pick also was encouraging. The ESPN crew on-air described him as one of the “safest” picks in the draft. ESPN.com described him as:

While Virginia Tech’s Jimmy Williams has more natural ability and still was on the board, Jennings doesn’t have the same kind of character issues and has great potential. He has good closing speed and rarely gets caught out of position, so he is capable of pushing for immediate playing time.

Doesn’t have character issues. That’s a Ruskell trademark.

Another great pick, David Kirtman, FB from USC in the 5th round. Seattle just handed Mack Strong a 3-year deal to retain his blocking services for the remainder of his career, so he should retire a Seahawk. And every time Seattle has tried to draft a replacement for Strong he’s beat the guy for the job. I don’t expect anything less from the most admired Seahawk on the team. But drafting the kid fromUSC, the guy who lead the way for Lendale White and Reggie Bush, sure seems like a great move for the future to me. Those are two of the best runningbacks in this year’s draft. Scouts Inc. descibes Kirtman as a guy who “plays with a mean streak.” He is said to have great hands as well, so he can catch the ball out of the backfield. Reading the scouting material on Kirtman is like reading the scouting manual on Mack Strong. Good fit for Seattle.

Overall I was pleased, as a fan, watching Seattle make those picks. I was pleased at them taking “football players” over “atheletes” and taking character and production over guys with baggage and “potential.” I really like the way Ruskell is building this team. We saw the difference it made last season with he jettisoned the troublemakers and low character guys. It resulted in a Super Bowl trip. I hope another year means a Super Bowl win.

Oh yeah, and the flag thing… Funny Chris Berman. Real funny

Tomorrow is the big day. The 2006 NFL Draft is upon us. All of the lying, deception and misdirection will finally be over. We get to watch every coach, General Manager and scout be turned into liars on national TV. Happy liars, but liars nonetheless.

This is my favorite sporting event between the end of the Super Bowl and the the start of the first exhibition game in August. I think it is incredibly cool that the draft has become such a hugely hyped event. It is the perfect excuse to ignore mowing the lawn and trimming the hedges, and instead spend the day on the couch eating pizza and hot dogs wearing your favorite team’s jersey. This is another reason why the NFL is so cool: their draft is a major event. The NBA has just launched into their marathon three-month playoff session and yet they’re going to be totally outshone by the NFL Draft. Imagine the Wild Card round of the NFL being usurped by the NBA Draft. Not happening.

So what do we know about the draft this year? I’m no Mel Kiper Jr., but I know this: Take everything you’ve heard in the last month and throw it out the window. The GM’s and coaches have been lying, trying to protect their picks. But there’s only one thing that really counts when you get down to the draft, and that is: did the kid kick ass in college? If you can answer that question with a resounding “YES” then you best draft him immediately. Don’t wait around and play the “value” game. Do like Seattle did last year. They picked Lofa Tatupu in the 2nd round when Mel Kiper Jr. and every other analyst said that Tatupu was a 4th round value. They said Seattle “reached” to get him.

Does anyone remember what happened with that pick?

Oh yeah, he went on to lift Seattle’s defense into a Top-5 unit, they shut down Steve Smith in the playoffs (Tatupu had an interception on a ball inteded for Smith), they went on to the Super Bowl and Tatupu landed himself a spot in the Pro Bowl.

Fourth round “value”. Remember that.

What do I think will happen tomorrow?

In the last week it seems as if every “mock” draft has suddenly soured on Matt Leinart and elevated Vince Young to #1 quarterback selection. Recall, this is the same Leinart that, had he come out and gone professional last year, would have been the overwhelming #1 choice as a junior. He elected to stay at USC for his senior season, forgoing the cash draw of the NFL in favor of the chance to be a celebrity kid on a college campus for one more year. Clearly he loves the GAME and not the MONEY. NFL gurus would be wise to think about this kid’s character before they make their quarterback selections tomorrow.

I think Tennessee drafts Leinart tomorrow because of the Norm Chow connection. I think they’d be making a mistake of epic proportions if they do not. That doesn’t mean I think Leinart is going to be the next Payton Manning. Indeed, I think Leinart’s career is going to look a lot more like Jake Plummer’s than Dan Marino’s.

The other option is Vince Young, and I don’t think he’s going to be very good. He is often compared to Michael Vick, yet Vick has struggled to master the game at the NFL level. Michael Vick and Vince Young possess atheletic skills that make them elite players at the college level because they are facing inferior talent. If they can’t find an open receiver or make the perfect pass they can just dash past the defenders themselves and score with their legs. But the NFL is a different league than college and it just doesn’t allow for gifted atheletes like Vick and Young to excel at the quarterback position by “winging it.” Doesn’t work that way.

At any rate, this how I see the first round:

Pick #1: Texans select Reggie Bush, Runningback

There’s been a lot of misdirection and misinformation in the last week about what Texas is really going to do with this pick. Remember folks, it’s not what they say in the final week that counts. This has been the pick all along since long before the Rose Bowl was over. Would you pass on Barry Sanders if he were coming out tomorrow? I don’t think so.

Pick #2: Saints select Mario Williams, Defensive End

Some say Williams could be the next Julius Peppers. Wrong answer. He’ll be a bust because he only looks good against inferior offensive tackles at the collegiate level. This is yet another bad defensive pick by the Saints who have already made several bad defensive picks in the past few years. Williams is overrated.

Pick #3: Titans select Matt Leinart, Quarterback

If GM Floyd Reece selects Vince Young this will eventually go down as one of the worst selections of the 2006 drafts, after Leinart enjoys a much more productive career. But I don’t think the Tennessee brain trust will let it happen. Norm Chow lobbies hard at the last minute and gets reunited with his old protege.

Pick #4: Jets select D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Offensive Tackle

The Jets have been giving extensive looks to quarterbacks, namely Jay Cutler, and I won’t be surprised if they select the kid with this pick. It would be just what Jets fans have come to expect from their team, wasting a pick on a kid that doesn’t rate this high. They could also intentionally torture their fans by selecting Vernon Davis, the tight end from Maryland (with their recent history of selecting tight end busts in the first round the Commissioner might have to put any Jets fans in the stands on suicide watch after such a selection). However, I think with new head coach Eric Mangini, formerly an assistant with Bill Belichick, you’ll see the Jets make the smart pick for the first time in a long time.

Pick #5: Packers select A.J. Hawk, Linebacker

Supposedly a Tatupu-style middle linebacker (relentless, loves the game, etc.) this is the easiest selection in the first round. Green Bay needs defensive in a big way. Whenever you can get one of the few impact defensive players of the draft you make the pick.

There you have it. We’ll see how wrong I am tomorrow morning. As for my beloved Seahawks, they don’t pick until the 31st selection. I’m anxious to see what Ruskell does this year. He made some great picks last season. I hope he finds a few more gems worth having this year.

Small update for the CAB Outlook Bar. It has XP Theme support now. Download here. It’s also been redesigned slightly from a graphics standpoint to look a little better (there were some border issues that I wanted to fix so it now looks more like the real OutlookBar).

Credit for the theme support goes to Allastair Dallas and his article on the CodeProject. This is probably not the ideal way to provide theme support for a control, but it works (for now). If the OutlookBar can’t detect themes if fails silently and by default displays the XP Blue theme. It also handles the OnSystemColorsChanged event so if the user changes themes while the application is open the OutlookBar updates itself.

I’m not an expert GUI developer so anyone who feels like chiming in with a better way to handle these sorts of theme issues go ahead In my development area we can guarentee 100% XP desktops so this is, as usual, good enough for me

I’ve also updated the instructions on the previous post as I forgot to mention the need to register the OutlookBarItemCommandAdapter and the OulookBarUIAdapterFactory prior to creating it. See that post for full details.

One of the things that has always been annoying about playing a video game, especially roleplaying games, is the static setting. Buildings, vehicles, and characters don’t do anything more than exist to serve the player. They don’t create a real, virtual world; they create the illusion of one. Players discover quickly that game worlds are static and lack depth, and that destroys immersion.

Morrowind, the predicessor to Oblivion, was no different than any other roleplaying game in this regard. You could count on the non-player characters to be at certain places all the time, never sleeping or visiting a friend or plowing a field or sleeping. They just stood in their specified location, perhaps wandering a few feet here or there, and wait for the player to engage them when it comes time for their part in the story.

Fortunately, things have changed.

Oblivion sports a new Artificial Intelligence system called the Radiant AI engine. It is a breakthrough in game technology. The Oblivion Wiki describes it:

Radiant AI works by giving NPCs a list of goals (only quests and interaction with the player character are scripted). They must decide how to achieve these goals by themselves based on their individual statistics. A hungry NPC might compare his current gold against his moral values to decide whether he will walk to a store and purchase food, or just steal it; a skilled archer can choose to hunt his own deer.

This system has improved the immersion of the game substantially. For instance, I was on a quest that involved breaking into the captain of the guard’s chambers to find some incriminating evidence. Upon entering the guard house I discovered the soldiers in the middle of a shift change. When a guard entered through the front door he would be greeted by a fellow soldier who would then inform him he was being replaced. The guard coming off-duty would then sit down at a large table and start to eat. This process continued for several minutes, one guard after the next, until the entire township’s guards had swapped places, dayshift to nightshift. My character, itching to complete his mission, was forced to sit at a bench nearby waiting for the off duty guards to finish eating and go to sleep.

The whole experience really made the game world come alive. I no longer feel like the game world exists to serve me, but that my character is simply one small being in a larger domain. The guard house experience changed my expecations. Instead of the NPC’s existing explicitly to serve me and my purpose, I was having to adjust my schedule and expectations around their actions. That doesn’t happen in video games, and when it does it is largely the result of pre-planned scripts written by the developers. Here, though, I just happened to walk into the guard house at exactly the right time of day to witness the shift change.

I’m not sure that the value of the Radiant AI engine can be described adequately, or determined in terms of money and sales. This is a serious improvement to video game design. Much like how Oblivion’s graphics have raised the bar for future games, so has the Radiant AI engine. Players are not going to accept static game worlds after playing Oblivion.

And why should they? This is an absolutely wonderful world to play in.