Chris Holmes Online

The Seattle Seahawks are officially the Rodney Dangerfield team of the NFL. Want proof? Shawn Alexander runs for 140 yards and 4 touchdowns Sunday against the Cardinals, and he’s not even a Candidate for ESPN.com’s Sunday Stud. Not only that, check out the Rundown of Sunday’s games (it’s the right-hand column). Notice a game missing?

It’s probably all for the best that everyone ignores Seattle anyway. Last year the media jumped on the Seattle bandwagon so fast that the pressure was simply too much for the ‘Hawks, and they collapsed under the weight of expectations with colossial chokes against the Rams and Cowboys. Maybe if no one pays attention this season, they’ll just win it all.

The road to the Super Bowl still goes through New England

I changed about four picks before Sunday’s games. Good thing too, or else I’d have a much worse record. I originally picked the Steelers to beat the Patriots, but the thought of New England being 1-2 after week 3 just didn’t sit well with me. Then ESPN’s Countdown crew came out and all three (Irving, T.J. and Young) picked the Steelers to win. I knew something was up. They talked about how Pittsburgh was going to blitz Brady all day because he was completing less than 50% of his passes against the blitz. That’s when I thought to myself, “These are the Super Bowl champs, coached by Bill Belichick. Does anyone honestly believe he’s not going to fix their protection against the blitz?”

I picked New England.

The Bengals are 3-0?

The game I couldn’t get myself to switch was the Bengals at the Bears. Granted, the Bears throttling of Detroit the previous week probably had as much to do with Detroit’s poor QB play as it did the Bears’ great defense, but I still couldn’t pull the trigger and annoint the Bengals as legitimate with a 3-0 start. After all, the rule of thumb when picking week 3 games is: only the truly worthy teams make it to 3-0.

I guess the Bengals are truly worthy, eh?

On the Road Again

I don’t know what to make of next week’s matchup: Seattle @ Washington. The ‘Skins are 2-0, and I just can’t believe they’re really a 2-0 team. That offense is pathetic. If it weren’t for a really weird 70 seconds against Dallas, we’d be talking about how pathetic this team’s offensive prospects are. Instead they’re 2-0 and hosting Seattle for a potential 3-0 start.

And the ‘Hawks don’t travel well.

I thought the 49ers were supposed to suck

What’s this? A late comback by the Cowboys to win? Who are these 49ers? And how did they score 31 points against Dallas?

I thought the Eagles were supposed to be invincible

Then how did the Sad-Sapp Raiders manage to almost win this game? Preposterous…

Things I liked from the Seahawks game:

• Darrel Jackson taking Antrel Rolle to school. For the second week in a row, Jackson went up against a young, good corner, and won.
• Shawn Alexander busting loose.
• Matt Hasselbeck’s efficiency.
• The defensive pressure on the Cardinal QB’s.
• Marcus Trufant leaping for a near interception. Atheltic play. Makes the ESPN highlights if he catches that ball.
• Mack Strong on a 3rd-and-long draw play.
• Seattle’s pass protection.
• Outscoring Arizona 27-3 in the second half.

Now the question is: can they do it to Washington next week, on the road, against a tough defense?

Peter King is the best in the business. He is the best NFL reporter I’ve ever read. He has a rapport with the coaches and players (due to years of quality work) that allows him to get the inside scoop on everything. His Monday Morning Quarterback is a must read for football enthusiasts like myself.

So it’s with some humor that I read in his column this week that he can’t pick games:

This is not meant to be self-deprecating. It’s a fact: I cannot pick football games.

I went 4-12 in Week 2 just picking winners. No spread involved. I am 14-18 on the season. If I just picked teams playing at home (including the Giants Monday night), I’d be 23-9. But nooooo. I have to be the smart guy.

That sort of thing makes me feel a bit better about my own prognostication. I’m 19-13 on the season, currently tied for 7th (ranked 8068 out of some 170,000+ folks) on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em.

So, I say to Mr. King: Peter, don’t worry about picking. Just keep digging up that all-important insider information for me. I have to reclaim my rightful spot in the family/office picking pool.

Seahawks 21, Falcons 18

I don’t know what to take away from that game. The 21-point first half, where the Seahawks looked like potential NFC champions, or the near-collapse in the second half when the ghosts from last year’s 17-point debacle against the Rams came back to haunt Quest Field. Will the real Seattle Seahawks team please step forward?

I will say the most encouraging parts of the game were:

• Watching Jeremy Stevens make that diving catch in the endzone, that only a 6′7″ guy could grab. He finally looks like the threat that they expected him to be when they drafted him in the first round three years ago.
• Watching Shawn Alexander run right on 3rd-and-1, get stopped at the line of scrimmage, and then pressing forward for three more yards with nothing but raw determination. Typically he just falls down and gives up. Maybe not having a contract is motivating him?
• Hearing Lofa Tatupu’s name being called by the announcer’s. It means he’s making plays in the middle, where Seattle has been weak for far too long. Do I hear Rookie of the Year? Yeah, it’s early, but he’s got a chance.
• Seeing Darrel Jackson, Bobby Engram, and Joe Jurevicius catch everything thrown their way, save one drop. It’s about time.
• Seeing Matt Hasselbeck make smart decisions.
• Seeing Walter Jones absolutely dominate everyone and everything that the Falcons threw at him. Really, the whole offensive line was great. After seeing the way they harrassed the Eagles and Donivan McNabb, I thought Seattle would have a lot more trouble. But Hasselbeck had all kinds of time to throw… Nice work Mike Holmgren, getting that line to play well. I only hope they keep it up.

The real test comes this weekend. I know, you’re laughing. The Arizona Cardinals? How are they a test?

It’s simple, really. Seattle has a habit of playing down to their competition. It’s time to step up. Notice how the Eagles completely crushed the 49er’s this past weekend? 42-3. That’s what Seattle has to do: dominate the teams they’re suppose to beat. No playing soft. No going easy.

Crush ‘em.

4 8 15 16 23 42

The numbers are cursed. At least, that’s what Hurley thinks. But there’s one thing for certain about those mysterious numbers: they add up to the best damn show on TV right now.

Television shows frequently disappoint me. I’ve been burned before. Twin Peaks. The X-Files. Shows that ran too long and lost their way. Shows that forgot how to tell a story, because they were too interested in milking the cash cow.

The other thing that annoys me about TV shows (aside from the poor writing, bad acting, and terrible production) is that they always present cliff-hangers at the end of the season (that’s fine) but then they inevitably follow up with a season premiere that is pointless – resolving nothing! Season premiers always make me sit back and say, “I waited all summer for this?”

But now we have Lost, and we are treated with a TV show that knows how to do it right. We’ve been waiting all summer for this, and J.J. Abrams and Damon Lindelo delivered. The season premier of Lost was perfect, and it was one of the best episodes of a television show I have ever seen. And then when I realized it was a season premiere, I understood just how good this show really is. Season premiers always stink. Lost did everything but.

For the past two years I’ve thought HBO’s Deadwood was the best show on TV. And it still sits in my Top Three, but last night Lost raised the bar. They showed us stuff. The inside of the hatch, and more… And in typical Lost fashion, even after they showed us a lot of new things, they left us wanting more. I tip my hat to show creator J.J. Abrams: the guy knows how to do TV. A lot of television writers, directors, and producers should take a class from this guy. Because he seems to be one of the few doing television right now who actually gets it.

If for some reason you’re not watching Lost (and if you’re like me, there’s simply not enough hours in the day for TV) then you should be. If you watch no other television all year, watch Lost. Do yourself a favor: go out, get the First Season DVD, and get caught up. And then get ready for the ride of your television life.

I have to preface this by saying: I hate college football. There, I said it. Blasphemy, I know. Anti-American, I know. How can I love football and hate the collegiate game?

Easy.

College football is to the NFL what Rob Schneider is to acting – horrible. I can’t fault the players 100% though, even though some of them can’t tackle, run a receiving route, or throw a football to save their lives. No, I hang the atrocious state of college football squarely on the coaches and the BCS (I’ll save the Big’ole Crapfest Showdown for another post…)

Coaches at the collegiate level just suck. There’s no other way to say it. They lack the fundamental knowledge of the game. They don’t understand the concept of formations & matchups. They think it’s smart to run 95% of their offense from the shotgun. They think putting four and five wide receivers on the field in a spread offense makes them gurus. They actually think that faking a handoff from the shotgun every single play is fooling someone (Yes, Texas and Ohio State, I’m talking to you).

Enter Charlie Weiss, the ex-offensive-coordinator for the three-time Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. School is officially in session.

I generally can’t stomache college football games. I can usually only watch five minutes before the predictable playcalling and horrible execution force me to turn my TV off and pray for Sunday’s brand of football to stream into my living room, cleansing my eyes of all the atrocities from the previous day. But with Weiss arriving in South Bend this summer, I decided I had to watch. I had to see how Charlie would do, and how he was going to educated the NCAA.

I’ve seen every snap of both Notre Dame games this season, and did it with a smile on my face. It was fun to watch.

Watching Weiss’s offense against Michigan was like watching Floyd Mayweather pummel Aturo Gatti. Gatti didn’t know how to defend against Mayweather’s relentless attack, and neither did Michigan. Weiss said before the season:

“(Opponents) had an advantage before I got here,” he said. ‘Well, now it’s X’s and O’s time. Let’s see who has the advantage now.”

Of course, the only problem with Weiss at Notre Dame is that he doesn’t have Tom Brady, the New England Defense, or Corey Dillon. It showed Saturday against the Wolverines; Brady Quinn looked good on the Irish’s opening drive, but after that he did his best Rick Mirer impression, missing on several passes to wide-open receivers. Darius Walker ended the game with 104 rushing yards, but failed to hit open holes quickly and did not take advantage of some really big running lanes that his offensive line graciously provided. The defense was stout though, and the overall effect was felt – Michigan was ranked #3 and got beat, on their home turf no less. And Weiss’s multiple formation offense (is there any other reasonable label for what this guy does?) had the Wolverines confused, befuddled, and beaten.

What I love about Weiss’s offense is the way he uses his formations to create matchups that favor his players. He comes from the NFL, so he understands these things. You don’t see the shotgun on every play from Weiss because he understands that confusing the defense and keeping them off-balances is part of a successful offensive attack. Is it a running play? Is it a pass? Is it play action? You don’t know. When you run 95% of your offense from the shotgun (like Texas and Ohio State did Saturday night) you’re basically conceding the running game. Weiss concedes nothing.

Yeah, the execution still needs work. It’s still collegiate players – they don’t quite put it together on the field like NFL players do. But with Weiss’s offense on the field, at least it’s watchable now. At least it isn’t predictable.

I feel for the teams that have to play Notre Dame in the coming months, but especially the coming years. Weiss is working with a set of players that he did not recruit. I’m certain Brady Quinn wouldn’t have been his first pick, with his inaccuracy problems. Weiss will make it work for now, and then he’ll recruit players that fit his personality better (I’d say his scheme, but Charlie doesn’t have a scheme – his scheme is to exploit his opponent’s weakness, and that varies from one opponent to the next). Once Weiss gets the players he likes, watch out.

This isn’t your old Notre Dame playbook boys and girls. As Colin Cowherd likes to say: This is Big Boy Football.

Predictions are a blast. I love watching the ‘experts’ try and figure out who will be there at the end of the season, and why. Remember last year? It seemed like everyone was on the Seattle bandwagon, picking them to go to the Super Bowl. I got so excited last season because the ‘experts’ were picking my team. But let’s get real: we knew the ‘Hawks were going to drop too many passes, the defense was young, and they had not established that killer instinct that so many championship teams have.

In short, no one was really paying attention to the facts.

But it’s a new season, and we can learn, can’t we? Billy Simmons points out this interesting factoid about playoff teams:

Every season, six playoff teams make it back, six playoff teams drop out, and six other teams fill those spots. This is how it works. This is how it always works.

I haven’t verified this, but it sounds right. I remember he wrote a similiar piece last season.

I’ve watched about as much pre-season football as I could find on my DISH Network satellite. It’s not a huge sampling, and it is only pre-season, but I did learn some things. Here’s my picks:

AFC

Division Winners: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs.
Wild Cards: Chargers, Jets

NFC

Division Winners: Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, Seahawks
Wild Cards: Falcons, Rams

Super Bowl: Colts vs. Panthers, and Colts win. (Yes, I think Peyton Manning finally solves the Patriots this season).

Why these teams? I think the one thing that the ‘experts’ constantly overlook is the youth at the quarterback position. You’ve got too many people saying that QB’s with little experience (like Buffalo’s J.P. Losman and Chicago’s Kyle Orten) are going to win for their teams. Balony. It never happens that way. Until Ben Roethlisberger last year, Dan Marino was the last guy to walk into the NFL and win immediately. The quarterback position is too important in this league for teams with sub-par QB’s to even have a remote chance of getting into the post season.

Picking these teams is more a process of elimination than it is choosing the good teams. Go down the list of teams you know aren’t going to be in the playoff hunt at season’s end: 49ers, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Browns, and Bills. For one reason or another (weak QB, poor defense, overall lack of team depth/talent) these teams don’t have the whole package to compete for a playoff spot. These teams are out of the playoff hunt before the season starts, they just don’t know it yet.

The team that probably will surprise someone for not being on the post-season list: Steelers.

Hey, I’m a huge fan of Ben Roethlisberger, but let’s face it: Pittsburgh masked him last year. They protected him. They put him in safe situations, gave him a punishing running attack, and a great defense, and asked him to not make mistakes. But both runningbacks are hurt to start the season, and the defense has lost a couple players (Plaxico is gone as well). If you lose a Randy Moss, that’s addition by subtraction. But when you lose a Plaxico Burress and don’t really replace him, that’s not addition. That’s just plain subtraction.

There will be a drop-off this season. The defense will be good, but not dominating. The running game will suffer. Big Ben will make more mistakes as defenses gameplan for him. They won’t make the playoffs. Bettis will finally retire, a Hall of Famer. And then they’ll rebuild the team around Big Ben, and in a season or two all will be well.

Detroit and Arizona are the two enigmas this season.

Detroit has talent, so what’s the problem? Is it really Joey Harrington? I find that hard to believe, because he’s a smart kid. Is it the defense? Is it the fact that every time this team drafts a great WR, he breaks bones and blows a season rehabbing? I’ve never been sold on Marriucci as a playoff calibur coach. He seems like a good guy for getting a team slightly above .500, but he just doesn’t come across to me as a coach with the mindset for the playoffs, like Bill Belichick.

And Arizona… What do we do there? They’re another team with great WR talent, a young RB, and a very talented and well-coached defense. But this is still Arizona, a team that sells more tickets for fans of the opposing team than they do for their own team. I know some ‘experts’ are picking them to win the NFC West, and they could – if the Seahawks and Rams collapse. But I don’t think that happens. They could go 9-7 and I think they still miss the playoffs.

Other thoughts:

Dallas: I can’t believe anyone thinks that Parcells, Bledsoe, and Terry Glenn are going to get this team to the promise land. Yes, the new-look defense will cause havoc. Yes, Julius Jones is a truck and will run over a lot of defenders. But ultimately, as Ron Jaworsky likes to say on NFL Edge Matchup: “Points come out of the Passing Game.” And Bledsoe just doesn’t have it anymore. He looked bad in the pre-season. The pre-season!

Ravens: Boller will be yanked before season’s end, and Wright will lead this team into the playoffs. Mark it down.

Packers: Sorry Packer fans, but you’re staring squarely at a sub .500 season. Your O-line is in shambles, your defense leaks like a sieve. Farve may wish he had retired after this season…

Broncos: Can we put an end to the Jake Plummer experiment already? Let’s face facts: this guy doesn’t possess the accuracy, attention-to-detail, or decision-making-ability of an NFL quarterback. For every flash of brilliance, he makes two boneheaded plays. I love ‘Jake the Snake’ (as a Pac-10 fan you almost have to) but he’s never going to be a Pro Bowl calibur quarterback, let alone John Elway. Plus, this team is starting Cleveland’s D-Line from last season. Cleveland people. Shannahan better find himself a QB in the offseason, and draft some defense in the third round, instead of taking chances on no-talents like Marice Clarett.

Miami & San Fransisco: It’s going to be a looooooong season. I feel for these teams.

Finally, we have these words of wisdom from Billy Simmons:

Because that’s the thing about sleepers: Nobody should be able to predict them. Last year, the Chargers came out of nowhere. The year before, Carolina. In 2001, New England and Chicago. When you hear people throwing the word “sleeper” around for teams like Arizona and Cincy, those are NOT real sleepers. You need to choose someone from this putrid group: Redskins, Giants, Bears, Bucs, Niners, Raiders, Titans, Browns, Bills and Dolphins. I’m telling you, one of those nine teams will make the 2005 playoffs, and everyone is going to say, “Oh my God, how did that happen????”

I’m not picking any of those teams. Yeah, I know – Simmons is right. Every season some team that everyone has written off from the beginning gets their act together and makes a run at the playoffs. But what I really want to know is: what are the common denominators between those teams? What central aspect do those teams share? There has to be some way to detect who those sleepers are.

If I had to pick one team from that group, I’d pick the Giants, because I think Eli Manning will be better (he is a Manning, after all) and I think Tom Coughlin is a good coach who can get the rest of the team to play up to their potential. They have players like Jeremy Shockey, and Tiki Barber, and those types of players can get you some wins. But overall I think the NFC is stronger this season, and it’s just going to be more difficult to get into the playoffs with teams like the Falcons, Vikings, and Panthers on the rise. There’s only six slots avialable…

And I can’t wait.